2007 is the year of the upset in Mixed Martial Arts. We’ve seen some of the biggest names in the world lose matches they were expected to win and in some cases lose them badly. But is that really the story of the year? I wanted to look back over the big UFC shows to date (and big means PPVs not Fight Night specials) and the matches which sold those pay per views to see whether the upset was the exception or the rule in this unlikely year.

UFC 67 – February

The main event of the show was Anderson Silva vs Travis Lutter for Silva’s middleweight title. Except it wasn’t because Lutter, the brain surgeon, didn’t make weight. Silva was expected to win easily and he did. The other money matches were the debuts of Quinton Jackson and Mirko CroCop. Both were expected to win and both did.

Upset total – 0 out of 3
 

UFC 68 – March

This was the show where Randy Couture came out of retirement, moved up a weight class and faced a man significantly bigger and younger than he was. Randy humbled him (click for the music video I made after the fight) against all the bookmakers’ predictions.

The other promoted fights were the returns (after title losses) of Matt Hughes and Rich Franklin. Both won their fights as expected but Hughes was taken the distance by an opponent he was expected to dominate.

Upset total – 1 out of 6
 

UFC 69 - April

The main event was a welterweight title fight between Georges St Pierre and Ultimate Fighter 4 winner, Matt "The Terror" Serra. Serra had always been a journeyman fighter and his winning TUF did nothing to make people believe he had a chance against GSP. This was the same St Pierre who beat the unbeatable Matt Hughes to win the title. The same GSP who beat BJ Penn to earn his title shot and the same GSP who many thought was pound-for-pound the best fighter in the world. So it came as a surprise (to say the least) when Serra destroyed GSP on the way to a three and a half minute TKO victory. The other money fight was a clash between Josh Koscheck and Diego Sanchez – two rising stars – and there was no clear favourite going into the fight. Koscheck won but it was a bad fight so in some ways everyone lost.

Upset total 2 out of 7
 

UFC 70 – April

The UFC’s first visit to Manchester, England was headlined by Mirko CroCop vs Gabriel Gonzaga – the fight which was meant to set up a CroCop vs Couture heavyweight title match. Gonzaga was most famous for winning one of the worst fights in history (against Kevin Jordon at UFC 56) until he kicked CroCop so hard in the head that CroCop ripped his knee apart while collapsing to the mat. It was the first fight I ever won money on so I was happy. The local attraction was England’s Michael Bisping beating Elvis Sinosic as expected.

Upset total 3 out of 9
 

UFC 71 - May

A one-fight show on paper. The media went to town on Liddell vs Jackson and it remains one of the most famous fights in UFC history. Earlier in the night, the ridiculously unknown Houston Alexander shocked everyone by knocking out Keith Jardine in an under card fight (which I’m not counting in this experiment as it sold no buys). Going into the main event, Liddell was the favourite. Yes, Jackson held a win over Liddell but that was in Pride, it was a few years ago, Liddell was injured and so on. The man who destroyed Couture and Ortiz was supposed to humble the recently acquired Jackson. The reality was just the opposite – the unbeatable Liddell was completely overwhelmed by Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. No one had ever beaten Chuck Liddell in the first round, let alone inside two minutes.

Upset total 4 out of 10
 

UFC 72 - June

A strange show held in Northern Ireland and quietly put out on PPV on a Saturday afternoon (American time). There wasn’t really a main event in the sense of a fight which sold buys. People who watched it would’ve watched anything with the UFC banner. The official main event was Rich Franklin beating Yushin Okami as expected.

Upset total 4 out of 11
 

UFC 73 – July

The subtitle was "Stacked" as the show featured two title fights and the return of Tito Ortiz. Amazingly, all three fights went as predicted – Shawn Sherk beat Hermes Franca (though he failed a drug test on the night and may yet be stripped of his title), Anderson Silva beat Nate Marquardt and Tito Ortiz’s fight with Rashad Evans was a draw.

Upset total 4 out of 14
 

UFC 74 - August

Two intriguing fights sold UFC 74 - Josh Koscheck vs Georges St Pierre and Randy Couture against Gabriel Gonzaga. As expected, GPS overwhelmed Koscheck (including dominating the world class wrestler on the ground) on the way to a decision victory. The heavyweight title fight asked the question whether Couture could handle a man nearly twenty years younger than him, a man who knocked out Mirko CroCop and a man who was bigger and stronger than him. Of course he could – he’s Randy Couture. If he humbled Tim Sylvia to win the title he HUMBLED~! Gonzaga to retain it. Was it an upset? On paper it was.

Upset total 5 out of 15
 

UFC 75 – September

Of the three top fights, only Cheik Kongo’s victory over Mirko CroCop can be considered an upset. The big talking point of the night was the poor quality judging in the Bisping vs Hamill rather than who beat who in the other two big matches. Jackson vs Henderson was pretty even going in and went the distance.

Upset total 6 out of 18
 

UFC 76 – September

And so we reach the most recent UFC and the one which really prompted me to do this bit of analysis. When Forrest Griffin tapped out Shogun Rua with fifteen seconds left in a fight he was likely to win by decision, it was a huge upset. Rua was considered one of the best 205lb fighters in the world. If not the best. Griffin was a reality star who was exposed by Keith Jardine and came back a more hesitant fighter seemingly destined to be popular but not a contender. In the main event, Chuck Liddell was supposed to earn a seven figure payday against Wanderlei Silva by beating Jardine (himself coming off the aforementioned loss to Houston Alexander). Jardine dominated Liddell, never quite overwhelming him as Quinton Jackson did but controlling him for the full fifteen minutes on the way to a decision victory.

Upset total 8 out of 20
 

Conclusion

Overall, eight out of twenty money fights have seen upsets in 2007. Of course it is subjective what is a money fight and what is an upset but I think I’ve been fair on both counts. I’ve also not counted Pride who only ran one show this year (albeit one with two big upsets on it). The unpredictability of the sport is one of its big attractions – it may frustrate the hell out of Dana White and matchmaker Joe Silva but it makes it exciting to watch.