This Sunday at Wrestlemania, the second most famous boxer in the world (unless you include Mike Tyson or are British), Floyd Mayweather faces WWE superstar The Big Show in a match. They haven’t said what sort of a match it will be – it is just a match. Probably something vague like "no holds barred" or "shootfighting" which will let them do whatever they decide to do and pave the way for some face saving interference. Obviously it won’t be a legitimate sporting contest – no commission in America would sanction the fight even if it wasn’t promoted by WWE – but what if it was? A fight between such disparate athletes would be allowed in Japan and would make a lot of money for all concerned. But who would win? Obviously that would depend on the rules. I’m going to use existing sets of rules – if the fight actually happened they could agree on any rules they wanted and those rules would largely determine the outcome of the match. I will be assuming that the rules are decided six months before the fight and that each man will train full time with those rules in mind.

Exhibition boxing – I don’t know much about boxing but I do know there are exhibition fights of three or four rounds which are otherwise identical to regular fights. If Floyd and Big Show boxed for four rounds I would expect Floyd to win on points. His speed would make it very difficult to Big Show to land anything significant. I certainly think Big Show could knock Floyd out given the chance but he wouldn’t get the chance. Mayweather would dance around Big Show for twelve minutes and land enough punches to win a decision.

Regular boxing – this would have a different ending because it would be fought over twelve rounds. Big Show is huge – even though he’s lost a tonne of weight and was actually training for a pro boxing debut before WWE made him an offer he couldn’t refuse – he wouldn’t have the stamina to go twelve rounds. The story of the fight would be Mayweather peppering Big Show with punches to the ribs and chest. He’d be racking up points but could do enough damage that Show would either be unable to continue (he’d be breathing heavily anyway and toss in a broken rib or two) or he would be so exhausted that he’d be open for a knockout. I know – he’s two feet taller – but he might drop his guard completely, dip his head and just be in range for an uppercut. So in a regular boxing match Mayweather would win and win within the distance.

The Inoki-Ali Rules – for those that don’t remember (and I don’t technically remember because I wasn’t born when it happened), Muhammad Ali fought Japanese pro-wrestler Antonio Inoki in 1976 in what was going to be a worked match. Inoki’s wrestling backers offered Ali more to do a job for Inoki than he’d ever earned from a boxing match. Ali agreed to it and the match was announced. Some time before the bout however, Ali got cold feet. Whether he was worried about the damage to his reputation to lose to a wrestler or whether he genuinely feared Inoki would double cross him and hurt him for real we may never know. There was too much on the line for either man to back out so they agreed it would be a real fight. Then Ali saw Inoki in training and knew that he’d be in real trouble against a martial artist (and Inoki was a good but not great martial artist – his reputation had been based on worked matches but the consensus was he was good enough to beat an untrained man and to protect himself if his matches became real). The rules were changed again – Inoki was banned from grappling and could only kick Ali if Inoki was in a grounded position. He was also not allowed to punch Ali. Ali in turn wasn’t allowed to grapple or kick Inoki at all (not that he planned to). You’re thinking this sounds silly. You’re probably thinking that it is bad enough to be in a boxing match with Muhammad Ali without a rule saying you’re not allowed to hit him. The bout was ruled a draw (there were no judges but if there had been Inoki would undoubtedly have won) after fifteen rounds of nonsense. Inoki would shoot out of his corner, lunge at Ali like one of those football challenges which break legs and get people (except Ashley Cole) sent off, and spend the rest of the round kicking Ali’s calves while lying on his back. Everyone – the crowd, the fighters, the corners, the announcers and the viewers – hated it but rules make fights and these rules sucked.

So what would happen if they fought under those rules? Well it would probably still suck but with the size difference it might be different. Big Show doesn’t have Inoki’s speed or dexterity so lunges and (almost break dancing like) kicks from the back are unlikely. So it would probably be worse than Inoki-Ali and I’ve no desire to see it but as the only legit boxer-pro wrestler on record I thought I would mention it.

Finally, an MMA fight under unified rules and in a cage – this is where Big Show would have his best chance. With six months each to train MMA it wouldn’t be a technical classic. But Mayweather wouldn’t be good enough to fulfil the small guy role in one of those early UFC ‘small man beats huge man’ fights. BJ Penn could probably beat Big Show in the Octagon but not Floyd. Unless he gets the lucky punch – that’s always a caveat in any fight involving a striker – the likelihood would be Mayweather dancing around him, Big Show taking the jabs and slowly working Mayweather towards the fence. Once he’s got him trapped he can pretty much do what he wants with him. If he can get control of an arm he would certainly tap him out – Mayweather is no doubt strong but Big Show is a lot stronger. If it ended up on the ground, Big Show’s mass would overwhelm him. The size difference is so huge that it wouldn’t really make a difference whether he was in guard, half-guard or side control – he’d be smothering Mayweather. And let’s not forget that Floyd is used to wearing boxing gloves – he would almost certainly break his hand if he punched too wildly in MMA gloves as he wouldn’t be used to their relative thinness.

Even if he couldn’t tap him out – and we’re not talking technically glorious BJJ, just twisting an arm until it hurts too much – he would likely control the match to the extent that he’d win a decision. The fight would only be three rounds so his cardio might hold up.

So the maxim still stands – rules make fights. Because boxers traditionally have the greater economic power, their camps tend to define the rules to their advantage (and I’m not just talking Ali – most boxers who have tried MMA have at least attempted to get the rules changed shortly before the fight to impose limits on grappling and/or kicking in an attempt to make it as like a boxing match as they can). If they boxed, Mayweather would win one way or another. If they did MMA the Big Show would probably overwhelm him. In their Wrestlemania match I would expect Mayweather’s price tag and fame to get him the win (which is something which bugs me – everyone knows that wrestling is "fake" and goes on about it being "fake" but winning and losing this "fake" match is still the be all and end all to the outside stars and their fans, all of whom hate the fact that their guy is doing "fake" pro wrestling). It will no doubt involve lots of shenanigans to save both men’s faces and the match itself will not be a classic. But it will be a happening – you can rely on WWE for that – and one day we might be talking for real about what would happen if the world’s top boxer fought the world’s top non-boxer in a fair fight.